Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 12.193170 14.228422 16.448707 19.044176 21.988131 25.216640 29.017964
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 8.565215 11.220039 14.406319 18.482163 23.524247 29.521685 37.156297
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 6.565595 9.511410 13.348379 18.640498 25.667139 34.584106 46.647877
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 5.072070 8.050003 12.223196 18.371143 27.044325 38.666393 55.201648
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 4.335013 7.442037 12.075183 19.286139 29.976773 44.944603 67.109541
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 3.644358 6.738724 11.628996 19.634683 32.049720 50.127056 77.860381
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 3.047378 6.051435 11.068241 19.678587 33.596983 54.600460 87.867033
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 2.574958 5.473756 10.573752 19.720802 35.081645 59.027052 98.058316
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 2.406885 5.412347 10.930052 21.184200 38.936482 67.329487 114.664682
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.186615 5.204366 10.985961 22.115215 41.966174 74.518250 129.980445
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.986226 4.995427 11.002083 22.958274 44.892783 81.711102 145.722822
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.704741 4.555680 10.506683 22.787499 46.004708 85.951876 156.896480
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.390153 3.982964 9.677119 21.913593 45.831647 88.120300 164.990058
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.142881 3.511789 8.983286 21.217535 45.917403 90.745981 174.061067
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.997127 3.260483 8.725099 21.372765 47.627575 96.353737 188.632019
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.843640 2.948825 8.276259 21.060714 48.377793 100.255824 200.415886
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.787603 2.898122 8.434131 22.087145 51.898502 109.491092 222.281982
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.704915 2.746717 8.318834 22.477873 54.129301 116.417038 240.286964
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.617242 2.555740 8.070620 22.526746 55.635442 122.037087 256.169403
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.541319 2.381400 7.835670 22.574028 57.132059 127.717124 272.453998
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.532378 2.437253 8.236684 24.218627 62.262725 140.879854 303.632876
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.501816 2.407283 8.392114 25.264032 66.130398 151.715692 330.835863
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.470105 2.364609 8.504367 26.210114 69.841798 162.432682 358.305375